Location:Home / Journals / Article Detail

Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/jhass.2022.01.003

PDF Download

Supply Chain Disruptions and Consumer Behavior Change from COVID-19: Empirical Evidence and Long-Term Implications for Supermarkets in the UK

Maaz Khan1, Azzam Alroomi2, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos3,*

1Alliance Manchester Business School, Manchester, Greater Manchester, UK.

2Business Department, Arab Open University, Kuwait Ardiya, Kuwait.

3Business Information Systems & Analytics, Business School, Durham University, Durham, UK.

*Corresponding author: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos

Date: January 19,2022 Hits: 654

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to supply chains and changes to consumer behaviours around the world. This research looks at those two aspects within supermarket retail chains in England between now and the time the first lockdown ended. It also explores the changes supermarket supply chains are making for the near future as a result of the pandemic. Both of these areas, to the best knowledge of the authors have not been covered so far in literature. The research followed a qualitative approach with interviews conducted of supply chain professionals and store managers belonging to large supermarket chains. A thematic analysis was performed revealing the main themes discussed in interviews. The results imply supply-side disruptions have been more significant than demand-side disruptions within the past year or so. Moreover, some indications are given regarding the recent developments supermarket chains are making for the future to be better equipped to handle any new lockdowns or pandemics. The research has informed theory and practice that supply-side issues are the bigger concern currently in England and has mentioned a few ways to manage them. Additionally, by introducing key developments for the future, the research has highlighted the importance for other grocery retailers to think of ways to transform their supply chain to not only withstand disruptions, but also compete in the grocery retail space in the longer-term.

References

Accenture.com. (2020). COVID-19: Boost Agility and Responsiveness with Supply Chain Planning | Accenture. [online] Available at: <https://www.accenture.com/be-en/insights/consulting/coronavirus-boost-agility-responsiveness- supply-chain-planning> [Accessed 6 September 2021].

Alzahrani, S., Aljamaan, I., and Al-Fakih, E. (2020). Forecasting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Saudi Arabia using ARIMA prediction model under current public health interventions. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 13(7), pp. 914-919.

Badgaiyan, A. and Verma, A. (2015). Does urge to buy impulsively differ from impulsive buying behaviour? Assessing the impact of situational factors. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 22, pp. 145-157.

Baker, C., Kirk-Wade, E., Brown, J., and Barber, S. (2021). Coronavirus: A history of English lockdown laws. [online] House of Commons Library. Available at: <https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9068/> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Baum, K. and Robertson, S. (2020). Food makers shift production to focus on the basics during COVID-19 pandemic. [online] The Globe And Mail. Available at: <https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article- food-producers-move-to-make-just-the-basics/> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Baynes, C. (2020). Coronavirus pandemic worst crisis since Second World War, says UN chief. [online] The Independent. Available at: <https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/coronavirus-pandemic-crisis-ww2-united-nations -antonio-guterres-a9440006.html> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

BBC.co.uk. (2020). “Coronavirus: there is plenty of food in the supply chain.” [online] Available at: < www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-51989833> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Bentall, R., et al. (2021). Pandemic buying: Testing a psychological model of over-purchasing and panic buying using data from the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. PLOS ONE, 16(1), p.e0246339.

Carvalho, H., Duarte, S., Machado, V. C. (2011). Lean, agile, resilient and green: Divergencies and synergies. International Journal of Lean Six Sigma, 2(2), 151-179.

Charron, R., Harrington, H. J., Voehl, F., and Wiggin, H. (2014). The Lean Management Systems Handbook. Productivity Press, OR.

Choi, T. (2021). Fighting against COVID-19: what operations research can help and the sense-and-respond framework. Annals of Operations Research.

Cranfield, J. (2020). Framing consumer food demand responses in a viral pandemic. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 68(2), pp. 151-156.

Davey, J. (2021). Britain’s supermarkets wrestle with coronavirus demand conundrum. [online] U.S. Available at: <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-supermarke-idUKKBN21P0GI> [Accessed 5 Sep-tember 2021].

de Paulo Farias, D. and dos Santos Gomes, M. (2020). COVID-19 outbreak: What should be done to avoid food shortages?. Trends in Food Science & Technology, 102, pp. 291-292.

Deaton, B. and Deaton, B. (2020). Food security and Canada’s agricultural system challenged by COVID‐19. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 68(2), pp. 143-149.

Depoux, A., Martin, S., Karafillakis, E., Preet, R., Wilder-Smith, A., and Larson, H. (2020). The pandemic of social media panic travels faster than the COVID-19 outbreak. Journal of Travel Medicine, 27(3).

Do, Q., Mishra, N., Wulandhari, N., Ramudhin, A., Sivarajah, U., and Milligan, G. (2021). Supply chain agility responding to unprecedented changes: empirical evidence from the UK food supply chain during COVID-19 crisis. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, 26(6), pp. 737-752.

Doherty, M. (2016). Through the Looking Glass: Brexit, Free Movement and the Future. King's Law Journal, 27(3), pp. 375-386.

Doornik, J., Castle, J., and Hendry, D. (2020). Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic. International Journal of Forecasting.

Elluru, S., Gupta, H., Kaur, H., and Singh, S. (2017). Disaster resilient proactive and reactive procurement models for humanitarian supply chain. Production Planning & Control, pp. 1-14.

Feroze, N. (2020). Forecasting the patterns of COVID-19 and causal impacts of lockdown in top five affected countries using Bayesian Structural Time Series Models. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 140, p. 110196.

Fiksel, J., Polyviou, M., Croxton, K. L., and Petit, T. J. (2015). From risk to resilience: learning to deal with disruption. MIT Sloan Management Review, 56(2), pp. 79-86.

Ft.com. (2020). GSK and Sanofi team up on Covid-19 vaccine. [online] Available at: <https://www.ft.com/content/c67a3dff-558d-42bb-95a6-36e55ac23639> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Garnett, P., Doherty, B., and Heron, T. (2020). Vulnerability of the United Kingdom’s food supply chains exposed by COVID-19. Nature Food, 1(6), pp. 315-318.

GOV.UK. (2021a). Food Statistics in your pocket: Global and UK supply. [online] Available at: <https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/food-statistics-pocketbook/food-statistics-in-your-pocket-global-and-uk-supply#:%E2%88%BC:text=Based%20on%20the%20farm%2Dgate,food%20consumed%20in%20the%20UK> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Gov.uk. (2021b). Deaths. [online] Available at: <https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?area Type=nation&areaName=England> [Accessed 6 September 2021].

Guan, D., Wang, D., Hallegatte, S., Davis, S., Huo, J., Li, S., Bai, Y., Lei, T., Xue, Q., Coffman, D., Cheng, D., Chen, P., Liang, X., Xu, B., Lu, X., Wang, S., Hubacek, K., and Gong, P. (2020). Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures. Nature Human Behaviour, 4(6), pp. 577-587.

Gunessee, S. and Subramanian, N. (2020). Ambiguity and its coping mechanisms in supply chains lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic and natural disasters. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 40(7/8), pp. 1201-1223.

H. L. Lee, V. Padmanabhan, S. Whang. (1997). The bullwhip effect in supply chains. Sloan Management Review, 38(3), pp. 93-102.

Hendry, L., Stevenson, M., MacBryde, J., Ball, P., Sayed, M., and Liu, L. (2019). Local food supply chain resilience to constitutional change: the Brexit effect. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 39(3), pp. 429-453.

Hobbs, J. (2020). Food supply chains during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, 68(2), pp. 171-176.

Islam, T., Pitafi, A., Arya, V., Wang, Y., Akhtar, N., Mubarik, S., and Xiaobei, L. (2021). Panic buying in the COVID-19 pandemic: A multi-country examination. Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, 59, p. 102357.

Ivanov, D. and Dolgui, A. (2018). Low-Certainty-Need (LCN) supply chains: a new perspective in managing disruption risks and resilience. International Journal of Production Research, 57(15-16), pp. 5119-5136.

Kumar, Pavan, et al. (2020). Forecasting the dynamics of COVID-19 Pandemic in Top 15 countries in April 2020: ARIMA Model with Machine Learning Approach. medRxiv: n. pag.

Lang, T. and McKee, M. (2018). Brexit poses serious threats to the availability and affordability of food in the United Kingdom. Journal of Public Health, 40(4), pp. e608-e610.

Lee, H. L., Padmanabhan, V., Whang, S. (2000). The value of information sharing in a two-level supply chain. Management Science, 46(2000), pp. 626-643

Leng, H. K. (2021). The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Impact on Grocery Retailing: A Singapore Case Study. In: Lee, J., Han, S. H. (eds.), The Future of Service Post-COVID-19 Pandemic, Volume 2. The ICT and Evolution of Work. Springer, Singapore.

Leung, J., Chung, J., Tisdale, C., Chiu, V., Lim, C., and Chan, G. (2021). Anxiety and Panic Buying Behavior during COVID-19 Pandemic—A Qualitative Analysis of Toilet Paper Hoarding Contents on Twitter. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(3), p. 1127.

Liu, H., Chu, H., Huang, Q., and Chen, X. (2016). Enhancing the flow experience of consumers in China through interpersonal interaction in social commerce. Computers in Human Behavior, 58, pp. 306-314.

Luqman, A., Masood, A., Weng, Q., Ali, A., and Rasheed, M. (2020). Linking Excessive SNS Use, Technological Friction, Strain, and Discontinuance: The Moderating Role of Guilt. Information Systems Management, 37(2), pp. 94-112.

Matopoulos, A., Didonet, S., Tsanasidis, V., and Fearne, A. (2019). The role of perceived justice in buyer-supplier relationships in times of economic crisis. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 25(4), p. 100554.

Mazurek, J., Perez, C., and García, C. (2020). Forecasting the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the World, UK, Russia and Turkey by the Gompertz curve. 10.13140/RG.2.2.32701.61925.

McCarthy, T. and Golicic, S. (2002). Implementing collaborative forecasting to improve supply chain performance. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 32(6), pp. 431-454.

Morgan, B. (2020). Dark Stores Are The Future of Post-Pandemic Retail. [online] Forbes. Available at: <https://www.forbes.com/sites/blakemorgan/2020/04/25/dark-stores-are-the-future-of-post-pandemic-retail/?sh=48d0ccc37826> [Accessed 6 September 2021].

Nabi, K. (2020). Forecasting COVID-19 pandemic: A data-driven analysis. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 139, p. 110046.

Nandi, S., Sarkis, J., Hervani, A., and Helms, M. (2021). Redesigning Supply Chains using Blockchain-Enabled Circular Economy and COVID-19 Experiences. Sustainable Production and Consumption, 27, pp. 10-22.

Nikolopoulos, K. (2021). We need to talk about intermittent demand forecasting. European Journal of Operational Research, 291(2), pp. 549-559.

Nikolopoulos, K., Punia, S., Schäfers, A., Tsinopoulos, C., and Vasilakis, C. (2021). Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions. European Journal of Operational Research, 290(1), pp. 99-115.

Ons.gov.uk. (2021). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey technical article—Office for National Statistics. [online] Available at: <https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/ articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveytechnicalarticle/wavesandlagsofcovid19inenglandjune2021> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Petropoulos, F. and Makridakis, S. (2020). Forecasting the novel coronavirus COVID-19. PLOS ONE, 15(3), p.e0231236.

Queiroz, M., Ivanov, D., Dolgui, A., and Fosso Wamba, S. (2020). Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review. Annals of Opera-tions Research.

Reiley, L. (2020). The industry says we have enough food. Here’s why some store shelves are empty anyway. [online] The Washington Post. Available at: <https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/14/grocery- stores-empty-shelves-shortage/> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Russell, H. (2021). COVID-19: It’s been a year since cases were reported in the UK. [online] Sky News. Available at: <https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-its-been-a-year-since-cases-were-reported-in-the-uk-12201509> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Saarinen, L., Loikkanen, L., Tanskanen, K., Kaipia, R., Takkunen, S., Holmström, J. (2020). Agile planning: Avoiding disaster in the grocery supply chain during the COVID-19 crisis. Aalto University School of Science. Alto University School of Business.

Schmidt, W. and Ananth Raman. (2012). “When Supply-Chain Disruptions Matter.” Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 13-006, July 2012.

Schorfheide, F. and Song, D. (2020). Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic. SSRN Electronic Journal.

Shekarian, M., Reza Nooraie, S., and Parast, M. (2020). An examination of the impact of flexibility and agility on mitigating supply chain disruptions. International Journal of Production Economics, 220, p. 107438.

Shih, W. (2020). Global Supply Chains in a Post-Pandemic World. [online] Harvard Business Review. Available at: <https://hbr.org/2020/09/global-supply-chains-in-a-post-pandemic-world> [Accessed 6 September 2021].

Speare-Cole, R. (2020). Tesco to hire 20,000 staff as demand surges amid Covid-19 crisis. [online] Standard.co.uk. Available at: <https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/tesco-jobs-20000-coronavirus-covid19-demand- surge-shopping-a4393636.html> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Spithourakis, G., Petropoulos, F., Babai, M., Nikolopoulos, K., and Assimakopoulos, V. (2011). Improving the Performance of Popular Supply Chain Forecasting Techniques. Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, 12(4), pp. 16-25.

Sujath, R., Chatterjee, J., and Hassanien, A. (2020). A machine learning forecasting model for COVID-19 pandemic in India. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 34(7), pp. 959-972.

Syntetos, A., Babai, Z., Boylan, J., Kolassa, S., and Nikolopoulos, K. (2016). Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the future. European Journal of Operational Research, 252(1), pp. 1-26.

Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The impact of the highly improbable. Penguin Books Ltd, London (2007).

Tsao, Y., Raj, P., and Yu, V. (2019). Product substitution in different weights and brands considering customer segmentation and panic buying behavior. Industrial Marketing Management, 77, pp. 209-220.

Watson, A. (2020). Media usage during COVID-19 by country. WWW Document. Statista. Available at: < https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106498/home-media-consumption-coronavirus-worldwide-by-country/> 2020. [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Who.int. (2020). WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020. [online] Available at: <https://www.who.int/director-general/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening -remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march-2020> [Accessed 5 September 2021].

Wu, Y., Xin, L., Li, D., Yu, J., and Guo, J. (2021). How does scarcity promotion lead to impulse purchase in the online market? A field experiment. Information & Management, 58(1), p. 103283.

Zarei, M., Fakhrzad, M. B., and Jamali Paghaleh, M. (2011). Food supply chain leanness using a developed QFD model. Journal of Food Engineering, 102(1), pp. 25-33.

Zhang, S., Wang, S., Yuan, L., Liu, X., and Gong, B. (2020). The impact of epidemics on agricultural production and forecast of COVID-19. China Agricultural Economic Review, 12(3), pp. 409-425.

Zhu, G., Chou, M., and Tsai, C. (2020). Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Pandemic Exposing the Shortcomings of Current Supply Chain Operations: A Long-Term Prescriptive Offering. Sustainability, 12(14), p. 5858.

Full-Text HTML

Supply Chain Disruptions and Consumer Behavior Change from COVID-19: Empirical Evidence and Long-Term Implications for Supermarkets in the UK

How to cite this paper: Maaz Khan, Azzam Alroomi, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos. (2022) Supply Chain Disruptions and Consumer Behavior Change from COVID-19: Empirical Evidence and Long-Term Implications for Supermarkets in the UK. Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Science6(1), 28-42.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.26855/jhass.2022.01.003